For what it’s worth, here are my main take-aways from the new LIPA Fact Sheet (attached below with highlights added) on the South Fork Wind Farm:
1. South Fork Wind Farm was the least cost solution to meet increasing electric demand on the South Fork and New York’s renewable energy mandates.
2. LIPA’s share of New York State’s 9,000 MW offshore wind target is over 1,000 MW and SF Wind Farm is the first of many projects to meet the Long Island goal.
3. The South Fork RFP Portfolio (Wind+Storage+Demand Response) will cost the average residential customer on LI between $1.39 and $1.57 per month.
4. The price LIPA pays for the 90 MW SFWF starts at 16 c/kWh; the price for the additional 40 MW (contracted in Nov. ’18) starts at 8.6 c/kWh (this additional energy was the lowest cost renewable energy ever on LI at the time). The combined cost for the 130 MW would be about 13.7c/kWh in the first year. Prices escalate at an average 2% per year for 20 years.
5. Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) over 20 years for the combined 130 MW SFWF is 14.1¢/kwh (in 2018 dollars, using a 6.5% discount rate). Cost of other planned projects in the region are projected to be significantly lower but an ‘apple-to-apple’ comparison is difficult because these projects are much larger and benefit from economies of scale. They were also selected later and thus benefitted from lower industry price levels.
6. Prices for offshore wind power have declined rapidly in Europe due to increased investment and improving technology and we are now seeing price declines in the emerging U.S. offshore wind industry.
7. LIPA’s future offshore wind purchases will total over 800 MW, and will cost less as a result of expected price decreases. LIPA will also buy an estimated 90 MW of offshore wind from the recently announced 1,700 MW of New York State projects (by NYSERDA).
8. As a result of procuring offshore wind power spread out over many years (a decade or so) as prices decline, LIPA’s overall offshore wind portfolio cost will be minimized.
9. When comparing costs of renewable energy to conventional sources we also need to account for costs which are typically not accounted for such as the cost of air pollution, climate, unknown fuel price risk, etc.
The bottom line, as I see it, is that all this demonstrates that the South Fork Wind Farm not only provides us with local, renewable and reliable power but does so at an affordable price. And over time we will get more and more offshore wind power at even lower prices. This will result in a very affordable average bill impact and could even provide significant savings over fossil fueled power if natural gas prices turn out to be higher than currently forecast.
I’m attaching a marked-up version of the LIPA Fact Sheet where I highlighted sections discussing some of the above points in context.
Authored by Paul Veers1,*, and 28 other scientists. Science 25 Oct 2019: Vol. 366, Issue 6464, eaau2027 DOI: 10.1126/science.aau2027
I have copied the abstract and tried to
sum up the salient points. Basically, the success of Wind (and Solar) energy, and
the predicted growth of the industry, has led to new challenges. Innovations are
needed to handle the predicted future demand for clean energy.
Harvested by advanced technical systems
honed over decades of research and development, wind energy has become a
mainstream energy resource. However, continued innovation is needed to realize
the potential of wind to serve the global demand for clean energy. Here, we
outline three interdependent, cross-disciplinary grand challenges
underpinning this research endeavor. The first is the need for a deeper
understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow in the critical zone
of plant operation. The second involves science and engineering of the
largest dynamic, rotating machines in the world. The third encompasses optimization
and control of fleets of wind plants working synergistically within the
electricity grid. Addressing these challenges could enable wind power
to provide as much as half of our global electricity needs and perhaps beyond.
Abundant, affordable energy in many
forms has enabled notable human achievements, including modern food and
transportation infrastructure. Broad-based access to affordable and clean
energy will be critical to future human achievements and an elevated global
standard of living. However, by 2050, the global population will reach an
estimated 9.8 billion, up from ~7.6 billion in 2017 (1). Moreover, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance (BNEF) estimates suggest that annual global electricity demand could
exceed 38,000 terawatt-hours per year by 2050, up from ~25,000 terawatt-hours
in 2017 (2). The demand for low- or no-carbon
technologies for electricity is increasing, as is the need for electrifying
other energy sectors, such as heating and cooling and transport (2–4). As a result of these two partially
coupled megatrends, additional sources of low-cost, clean energy are
experiencing increasing demand around the globe. With a broadly available
resource and zero-cost fuel, as well as exceptionally low life-cycle pollutant
emissions, wind energy has the potential to be a primary contributor to the
growing clean energy needs of the global community.
During the past decade, the cost of
three major electricity sources—wind power, solar power, and natural gas—has
decreased substantially. Wind and solar are attractive because their low
life-cycle emissions offer public health and broader environmental benefits.
Leading energy forecasters such as consultancies, nongovernmental
organizations, and major energy companies—and specifically BNEF, DNV GL, the
International Energy Agency (IEA), and BP—anticipate continued price parity
among all of these sources, which will likely result in combined wind and
solar supplying between one- and two-thirds of the total electricity demand
and wind-only shares accounting for one-quarter to one-third across the globe
by 2050 (3–6). Tapping the potential terawatts of
wind energy that could drive the economic realization of these forecasts and
subsequently moving from hundreds of terawatt-hours per year to petawatt-hours
per year from wind and solar resources could provide an array of further
economic and environmental benefits to both local and global communities.
From a business perspective, at just
over 51 gigawatts of new wind installations in 2018 (7) and more than half a terawatt of
operating capacity, the global investment in wind energy is now ~$100
billion (U.S. dollars) per annum. The energy consultant DNV GL predicts
that wind energy demand and the scale of deployment will grow by a factor
of 10 by 2050, bringing the industry to the trillion-dollar scale (6) and positioning wind as one of the
primary sources of the world’s electricity generation.
However, to remain economically
attractive for investors and consumers, the cost of energy from wind must
continue to decrease (8, 9). Moreover, as deployment of
variable-output wind and solar generation infrastructure increases, new
challenges surface related to the adequacy of generation capacity on a
long-term basis and short-term balancing of the systems—both of which are
critical to maintaining future grid system stability and reliability (10–12).
A future in which wind energy
contributes one-third to more than one-half of consumed electricity, and in
which local levels of wind-derived power may exceed 100% of local demand, will
require a paradigm shift in how we think about, develop, and manage the
electric grid system (10–14). The associated transformation of the
power system in high-renewables scenarios will require simultaneous management
of large quantities of weather-driven, variable-output generation as well as
evolving and dynamic consumption patterns.
A key aspect of this future system is
the availability of large quantities of near-zero marginal cost energy, albeit
with uncertain timing. With abundant near-zero marginal cost energy, more
flexibility in the overall electricity system will allow many different end
users to access these “cheap” energy resources. Potential use cases for this energy
could entail charging a large number of electric vehicles, providing
inexpensive storage at different system sizes (consumer to industrial) and time
scales (days to months), or channeling into chemicals or other manufactured
products (sometimes referred to as “power-to-X” applications).
A second key aspect of this future system is the transition from an electric grid system centered on traditional synchronous generation power plants to one that is converter dominated (15). This latter paradigm reduces the physical inertia in the system currently provided by traditional power plants while increasing reliance on information and digital signals to maintain the robustness and power quality of the modern grid (12).
Here are some interesting figures from the this Review:
In the Guardian, Fri 25 Oct 2019 04.23 EDT First published on Thu 24 Oct 2019 14.45 EDT
“Offshore wind currently provides just 0.3% of global power
generation, but its potential is vast,” the IEA’s executive director,
Fatih Birol, said.
The study predicts offshore wind generation will grow 15-fold to
emerge as a $1tn (£780bn) industry in the next 20 years and will prove
to be the next great energy revolution.
The IEA said earlier this week that global supplies of renewable electricity were growing faster than expected
and could expand by 50% in the next five years, driven by a resurgence
in solar energy. Offshore wind power would drive the world’s growth in
clean power due to plummeting costs and new technological breakthroughs,
including turbines close to the height of the Eiffel Tower and floating
installations that can harness wind speeds further from the coast.
The next generation of floating turbines capable of operating further
from the shore could generate enough energy to meet the world’s total
electricity demand 11 times over in 2040, according to IEA estimates.
The report predicts that the EU’s offshore wind capacity
will grow from almost 20 gigawatts today to nearly 130 gigawatts by
2040, and could reach 180 gigawatts with stronger climate commitments.
In China, the growth of offshore wind generation is likely to be even
more rapid, the IEA said. Its offshore wind capacity is forecast to
grow from 4 gigawatts to 110 gigawatts by 2040 or 170 gigawatts if it
adopts tougher climate targets.
Birol said offshore wind would not only contribute to generating clean electricity,
but could also offer a major opportunity in the production of hydrogen,
which can be used instead of fossil fuel gas for heating and in heavy
The process of making hydrogen from water uses huge amounts of
electricity but abundant, cheap offshore wind power could help produce a
low-cost, zero-carbon alternative to gas.
In the North Sea, energy companies are already planning to use the
electricity generated by giant offshore windfarms to turn seawater into
hydrogen on a floating “green hydrogen” project, backed by the UK
government. The clean-burning gas could be pumped back to shore to heat
millions of homes by the 2030s. The UK has committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The overlap between the UK’s declining oil and gas industry and the
burgeoning offshore wind sector could offer major economic benefits for
the UK, Birol said.
“Offshore wind provides a huge new business portfolio for major
engineering firms and established oil and gas companies which have a
strong offshore production experience,” he said. “Our analysis shows
that 40% of the work in offshore wind construction and maintenance has
synergies with oil and gas practises.”
We have some news… about how we will respond to the escalating climate crisis – we will not stay quiet. This is the Guardian’s pledge: we will continue to give global heating, wildlife extinction and pollution the urgent attention and prominence they demand. The Guardian recognises the climate emergency as the defining issue of our times.
independence means we are free to investigate and challenge inaction by
those in power. We will inform our readers about threats to the
environment based on scientific facts, not driven by commercial or
political interests. And we have made several important changes to our
style guide to ensure the language we use accurately reflects the
The Guardian believes that the
problems we face on the climate crisis are systemic and that fundamental
societal change is needed. We will keep reporting on the efforts of
individuals and communities around the world who are fearlessly taking a
stand for future generations and the preservation of human life on
earth. We want their stories to inspire hope. We will also report back
on our own progress as an organisation, as we take important steps to
address our impact on the environment.
The Guardian made a
choice: to keep our journalism open to all. We do not have a paywall
because we believe everyone deserves access to factual information,
regardless of where they live or what they can afford.
hope you will consider supporting the Guardian’s open, independent
reporting today. Every contribution from our readers, however big or
small, is so valuable
You should be interested because…as reported on June 26, 2018:
Chronic flooding threatens to sink the value of Hamptons homes Hamptons homes are very likely to lose value given that they’ll face chronic flooding as climate changes and sea levels rise over the coming years, according to Bloomberg. Behind only Central California, the area has the second highest level of its property tax revenue at risk among U.S. municipalities with a high likelihood of chronic flooding in the next 12 years, the outlet reported. Climate change is expected to bring constant floods that would tank property values, erode infrastructure and sink tax revenue, all of which will make it harder to fund projects to battle the rising seas.
If you are thinking of buying a house in the Hamptons, take a look at this risk chart! Within 60 years you might be 100% sure to suffer severe flooding!
This is a really cool site where you can check the risks of your own home being flooded or under water for the rest of the century. For example I checked my neighborhood (Lionhead and Hog’s creek). By the time there is a 10 foot increase in sea levels my house will be water front property and most likely have a flooded basement. The marina (depicted above) will be under water much sooner. It is located by the inlet to Hog’s creek. There are 2 fresh water ponds (see below in green). They will fuse with the salt water ocean after a 4-5 foot rise in sea levels.
The most effective lies are those that begin with something that is true. The letter in the Oct. 3 Star by Mr. Walter Donway is a case in point. He states that the climate has changed in the past, before humans were emitting greenhouse gases. That’s true but the conclusions he draws are false. Past climate changes, obviously with natural causes, generally took many millennia to play out, and they were often accompanied by mass extinctions.
In the present case, the scenario is playing out over decades — much
shorter periods of time. And now we have more than seven billion human
beings who have occupied every niche that the existing climate could
support. Many of the most populated regions will become less able to
support humans, and this will result in mass migrations that will make
the refugee crises of this decade seem puny by comparison.
This is a big reason why our military
is very concerned about climate change. It’s also why 66 Republicans
joined the Democrats to defeat an amendment to the last defense
appropriations bill that would have prevented the Pentagon from
considering climate change in its strategic planning.
Mr. Donway also takes aim at climate models. Here again, he starts
with the truth that models have shortcomings. If the only evidence for
climate change came from models, I’d be a skeptic, too. Models are just
one piece of the puzzle. The precisely measured increase in the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, its correlation with
the emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, the steady increase in
global temperatures, and the shifting of the ranges of many species as
they attempt to adjust to the changing climate, are solid pieces of
evidence that have nothing to do with models.
What models contribute is an understanding of the complex mechanisms
that together influence the climate. Models also tell us which
uncertainties are most important and which ones can be safely ignored.
The role of clouds in the climate system is one very important area
where we need to refine the science, but the uncertainties here only
lead to uncertainty about whether climate change will just be very bad
or downright catastrophic.
It is quite possible that Mr. Donway really believes what he is
writing week after week, just as many an isolationist in the 1930s
really believed that Hitler was not a threat, but their beliefs didn’t
change the reality. It’s probably too much to ask him to reconsider, but
the rest of us don’t have to follow along.
Our young people have the most to lose, and they are beginning to lead the fight for sanity. Thank God for them.
Rural and often conservative states are leading the way in harnessing the wind.
By Philip Warburg; Monday, October 7, 2019
Advances in technology, improved economics, and broad political support are making wind power a formidable twenty-first century energy resource. Top-ranking Denmark draws 41% of its electricity from wind; Ireland follows with 28%; the European Union as a whole gets 14% of its power from wind.
Looking ahead, the Department of Energy
has prepared a scenario for 35% wind reliance by 2050. While that level
of wind generation sounds like major progress, it may be substantially
less than is needed for renewable energy resources to be the primary drivers of a net-zero carbon U.S. economy.
Wind power’s evolution
Wind power has served various purposes
in America since colonial times, but it first became available as a
source of electricity in the early 20th century, when modestly scaled wind chargers
supplied power to thousands of American homesteads and farm operations.
Soon, however, a built-out grid brought centrally generated electricity
to the nation’s rural areas, leaving little room for small-scale wind.
It wasn’t until the mid-1970s that the Arab oil embargo and a growing
interest in renewable energy gave rise to a second wave of American wind
In 1978, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) broke open
the U.S. power market by requiring utilities to buy electricity from
independent companies so long as they could generate electricity at less
than the “avoided cost” of new utility-generated power. That law paved
the way for America’s first commercial wind farm developers. A federal investment tax credit
gave wind farms an additional push, particularly in California where a
matching state tax credit earned renewable energy investors a 50% combined tax break.
These incentives created a super-heated climate for eager wind energy
entrepreneurs. Often relying on minimally tested technology,
California’s early wind farms experienced a high rate of mechanical and structural failure, supplying ample fodder to politicians who much preferred mining domestic coal and drilling for oil and gas.
The federal investment tax credit lapsed in 1985 and the California
tax credit ratcheted down over the subsequent two years, slowing
commitments to new wind projects. A federal incentive for wind was
revived in 1992, but this time it was reformulated as a production tax
credit that rewarded the actual generation of electricity. Hampered by
repeated delays in reauthorization, the federal production tax credit has nevertheless been a key catalyst to wind power’s ascent, reinforced by widely adopted state-level renewable electricity standards that require utilities to increase their reliance on wind and other sources of renewable energy.
The scaling up and declining cost of wind power
The average wind turbine today
is nearly three times taller than turbines built in the early 1990s.
[See Figure 1.] This allows modern wind farms to tap the stronger, more
constant winds that prevail at higher altitudes. Because wind power
increases as the cube of wind speed, the gains from taller towers are particularly momentous.
A further boost to output comes from development and use of much
larger rotors. Applying the formula for the area of a circle (A= π r2),
an increase in blade length (i.e. rotor radius) translates into a
disproportionate expansion of the rotor’s “swept area,” a key to
determining the amount of wind that is captured and converted into
While wind turbines have grown dramatically in size, the cost of
building and operating U.S. wind farms has dropped in recent years,
making them now fully competitive with the two other leading sources of
new power generation: solar photovoltaics and combined cycle gas.
According to Lazard, the levelized cost of land-based wind power
ranges from $29 to $56 per megawatt-hour; photovoltaics cost from $36
to $46 per megawatt-hour; and combined cycle gas runs from $41 to $74
per megawatt-hour. Nuclear power is much more expensive at $112 to $189
The geopolitics of wind
As a non-carbon-emitting technology, wind power has a big
environmental advantage over its leading fossil fuel competitors.
Onshore and offshore wind has a life cycle carbon footprint of 20 grams or less of CO2
equivalent per kilowatt-hour. The “cleanest” natural gas power plants –
those that use combined cycle technology – produce more than 400 grams
of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour. Supercritical coal
plants – the least polluting in the industry – generate close to 800
grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour.
While attractive to many who see climate change as a real and immediate threat, wind power
has developed much of its momentum in relatively conservative rural
states [see Table 1]. In 2018, 13 states in the nation’s interior region
accounted for more than 80% of new wind capacity additions.
Robust and relatively steady winds in the so-called Wind Belt, from Texas on up through the Dakotas, partially account for the heartland’s heavy investment in wind [see map]. Economics are also at play. Not only are many of the 111,000 American wind power jobs located in rural areas, but substantial financial benefits accrue to farmers and ranchers who lease out small sections of their lands to wind developers. Wind farm-generated tax revenues have also aided many cash-strapped rural communities.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has an Avian Radar Project
that helps wind developers identify and steer clear of major bird
migratory corridors when siting new wind farms. At some operating wind
farms where raptors and other vulnerable bird species may be present,
specialized detection equipment and human monitors can halt turbines as birds approach.
While bird fatalities are certainly cause for concern, wind energy
proponents urge that they be viewed in perspective. The U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service estimates that 365 to 988 million birds die each year
by crashing into building windows, and 89 to 340 million die in collisions with cars. Communication towers and electric utility lines
cause millions of additional bird deaths annually. And the ravages of
climate change caused by fossil fuel burning will wipe out vastly
greater numbers of birds as entire ecosystems are disrupted.
Efforts are also being made to minimize harm to bats living near wind
farms. Because bats generally fly in low winds hunting for insects,
studies have shown that their mortality rates can be minimized
by curtailing wind operations during these times – precisely when there
are limited economic gains from keeping turbines running. The Beech Ridge Wind Energy Project, located in a wooded area of West Virginia, has been particularly engaged in these curtailment efforts.
Another commonly expressed concern
involves noise resulting from wind power, with neighbors’ complaints
ranging from irritability, headaches, and insomnia caused by audible
sound to more tenuous claims of inner ear and sense of balance
disturbances attributed to ultra-low frequency infrasound. While the
transmission of turbine-generated sound can vary with topography and
weather conditions, setting a minimum setback
for wind turbines from the nearest inhabited buildings and outdoor
public spaces is one important step that state and local governing
bodies can take to protect wind farm neighbors and reduce public
resistance to proposed projects.
Offshore wind – the next frontier
Though well advanced in several European nations, U.S. offshore wind got off to an unfortunate start with New England’s hotly contested Cape Wind
project. Proposed for shallow waters near upscale vacation communities
on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, Cape Wind met with
vigorous opposition. Substantially funded by fossil fuel interests,
opponents objected to the project’s high cost to ratepayers, but the
anticipated visual impact of turbines on Nantucket Sound drew particular
hostility. Backers abandoned Cape Wind in 2018.
As U.S. reliance on wind power grows, there is an increased need to build enough energy storage and demand response capability to absorb surplus power when it’s generated and adjust to shortfalls when they occur. Modernized and expanded transmission
also will be required, to manage the flow of electricity from diverse
energy resources across broad geographical areas. Prioritizing these
investments will be essential if wind is to meet its potential as a
bulwark against runaway U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.